Romania Outlook 2021E:
Luck still on its side. The Romanian economy has been hit by multiple shocks in 2020: COVID-19, a bad harvest, and the end of the UK transition period before it leaves the EU. We expect real GDP to contract by 4.9%, rebounding by 3.9 in 2021E and 4.5% in 2022E. The recovery should benefit from loose monetary conditions, significant EU funding support, and the nascent export recovery in Europe.
